Trump 2.0 can open the door for a greener world

Last year was disastrous for the environment and climate change action. United Nations-backed talks to tackle biodiversity, plastic pollution desertification and climate change either collapsed or produced grossly inadequate agreements. The re-election of Donald Trump for another term in the United States signalled that the pushback against climate action would only intensify.

All this came in a year that broke the record for the hottest and for the first time average global temperatures surpassed the limit set by the Paris Agreement: 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

As we start 2025, the prospects for meaningful climate action seem bleak. But the anti-climate policies of Trump 2.0 and the intransigence of other major state and corporate polluters could also drive momentum from the rest of the world for radical change. Indeed, 2025 could open up space for the Global South to drive climate action and it only makes sense that Brazil – as the host of this year’s COP30 – should lead the way.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was returned to power two years ago on a promise of social and environmental change. After initial successes, however, his administration has lost momentum. This year could be Lula’s last opportunity to make good on his promises, take the lead globally on climate change and ensure that his legacy as a change-maker will go beyond Brazil’s borders.

Failed promises

During his presidential campaign, Lula heavily emphasised his rejection of his right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro’s anti-environment and anti-minorities policies and promised to reverse them, focusing on the conservation of the Amazon and the protection of vulnerable communities, including the Indigenous.

After his victory, he appointed climate activist Marina Silva to head the Environmental Ministry and Indigenous leader Sonia Guajajara to head the new Indigenous Affairs Ministry. At his inauguration on January 1, 2023, he walked with prominent Indigenous leader Chief Raoni, who has become the symbol of the fight to preserve the Amazon rainforest.

Three weeks later, he visited the Yanomami community, which was devastated by land grabs, violence by illegal miners and loggers, food insecurity and disease. He called their plight a genocide and promised to take immediate action.

Climate change also became a pillar of his foreign policy. At the COP28 held in Dubai in 2023, where countries from the Global South were pushing for progress on climate action, Lula declared: “Brazil is willing to lead by example.”

There were some initial achievements. In the first six months of Lula’s presidency, Amazon deforestation dropped by 33.6 percent. The police and military were deployed to crack down on illegal mining and within a few months, there was a sharp drop in the number of illegal mines operating. In May, the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources issued a ban on oil exploration off the coast of the Amazon Delta.

But Lula’s government failed to keep up the momentum. The security operations against the illegal miners slowed down, which allowed them to resume activities. Death rates among Yanomami children continued to increase and Indigenous communities continued to suffer.

The progress made on deforestation started to slow down and in August 2024, deforestation rates?rose?again. Meanwhile, the expansion of land for agriculture and cattle breeding did not stop; it just?shifted?to the Cerrado savanna, where deforestation does not make headlines as the Amazon does.

Meanwhile, the Lula administration has been pushing for the completion of the BR-319 highway that is supposed to connect the northern states of Amazonas and Roraima to other parts of Brazil. Construction cuts through the Amazon and would have a disastrous impact on the environment and Indigenous communities.

Lula has also publicly spoken in favour of oil exploration off the Brazilian coast, all while Brazil faced some of its worst floods and wildfires. His governments’ actions on those have also faced criticism.

From January to October, wildfires swept through Brazil, destroying large swaths of the Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal and devastating Indigenous communities; some 37.42 million acres, or about 15.1 million hectares, burned. Despite the unprecedented scale of the crisis, Lula did not declare a state of emergency, which would have helped local authorities have easier access to federal resources to deal with the crisis.

Last chance to act

When Trump returns to the White House in Washington, he is certain to make good on his promises to rescind environmental regulations and clear the way for dirty industries to pollute as much as they want. Other rich countries and corporations are already rolling back their own climate commitments.

In this environment of complete disregard for the ongoing climate catastrophe and the plight of those most affected by it, the world needs a leader who can take decisive action. For two years now, Lula has been giving beautiful speeches about the need to act on climate change, the need to protect the poor, and the need to set the record straight between those responsible for the climate disaster and those who bear its brunt.

It is time for him to put his words into practice. It is time for him to lead by example as he declared back in 2023. He has all the human and natural resources at his disposal to do so.

Brazil is home to the Earth’s largest rainforest and to nearly 1.7 million Indigenous people who know how to protect and care for nature. They know what needs to be done to preserve this remarkable carbon sink, as they have the lowest carbon footprint of us all. They need to be made part of not just the urgent action needed to protect their communities, but also Brazil’s overall climate and environmental policies.

Listening to the Indigenous people, as well as the scores of environmental experts and activists, some of whom are already in Lula’s administration, would mean that the president would have to give up on some traditional ties with big business.

Lula’s Workers Party (PT) is known for its addiction to fossil fuels. It is time to put an end to it. Although Brazil’s public oil company, Petrobras, is an important economic player, it should not dictate the government’s environmental and economic policies. Given how low the price of setting up renewable energy production is, Brazil can invest in a massive expansion of wind and solar. Petrobras is already making such investments; instead of insisting on further oil drilling, it can double down on solar and wind and become the country’s leading renewable energy company.

Lula will also have to break free from Big Agribusiness’s toxic influence. There is a way to farm and raise livestock without deforestation and pollution. Pushing this industry to adopt sustainable, green practices will not destroy it; it would make it more resilient to the inevitable climate disasters that will strike the country.

The same goes for the mining sector. Lula’s government has already made some efforts to regulate it and stamp out illegal practices, but it needs to go all the way. Illegal mining in Indigenous territories and nature reserves must be eliminated.

The government could create a task force that includes the federal and state law enforcement agencies with the intelligence branch and the military to focus on this issue. They could recruit not only Indigenous people to help them but also all those impoverished people drawn into illegal mining because of unemployment. Eradicating illegal mining would not only preserve the rainforest and protect Indigenous communities, but it would also deal a heavy blow to organised crime.

Indeed, strong policies on climate and nature preservation will benefit not only the natural environment but also Brazil’s people. They would open up more job opportunities that are safe and dignified – a major demand of the PT’s electoral base.

Leading radical change at home would give Lula more credibility to do so on the global stage. Words backed by action can have a powerful impact. At a time when the people of the world feel abandoned by their political elites, demonstrating a commitment to climate action and the wellbeing of vulnerable communities can mobilise millions and create enough momentum to push inert governments into motion. This could be Lula’s global legacy if he has the courage to pursue it.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.