Maduro claims victory in disputed Venezuela election: What’s next?

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro has won a third term after Sunday’s tightly contested election, according to the country’s electoral authorities.

The National Electoral Council (CNE) in Venezuela announced that, with 80 percent of votes counted, Maduro secured over 51 percent of the vote, achieving a majority over Edmundo Gonzalez?of the Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD), who received more than 44 percent.

However, the opposition has disputed the results, claiming victory as well, saying that their own records indicated their candidate, a former diplomat, received 70 percent of the vote.

Amid the turmoil, here is what we know and what might come next for the country.

What happened in Venezuela?

“I am Nicolas Maduro Moros, re-elected president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and I will defend our democracy, our law and our people,” Maduro said, after he was declared the winner of the presidential vote on Sunday.

Maduro claimed that Venezuela’s electoral process had been the target of a failed “massive hack” by a foreign actor, which he refused to identify. He asked for respect for “the sovereign life of Venezuela” and for “the popular will” to be respected.

Meanwhile, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado also claimed victory in the contested election.

“This is the truth and, my dear Venezuelans, this is the Venezuelan election with the largest margin of victory in history. Congratulations Edmundo,” Machado said, referring to Gonzalez. “In the coming days, we’ll keep on announcing the actions [we’ll take] to defend the truth.”

She said the opposition would keep fighting “until the end”.

“And the end will be the truth coming through, and a respect for the popular sovereignty that was expressed today,” she added.

Maduro voted at 6am (10:00 GMT) in Caracas. While voting, he said the results announced by the authorities would be recognised and defended by the armed forces and the police.

Maduro was fighting for his re-election and the continuation of a political project that was started by late President Hugo Chavez 25 years ago. Meanwhile, the opposition, energised and posing the most significant challenge to Maduro’s hold on power in years, pledged to restore Venezuela’s democracy and rebuild the economy — hit by Western sanctions — if victorious.

What is expected next in Venezuela?

Venezuelan law grants independent witnesses the right to stay at polling stations until they have verified the count and received a printed copy of the results. However, the opposition reported that they received results from only 30 percent of polling stations. The electoral body has yet to release official voting tallies from 30,000 polling centres, hampering the opposition’s ability to verify the results.

Javier Farje, a Latin American historian and former electoral observer in Venezuela, says the opposition will count on the international community’s support in disputing the vote results.

“The opposition will demand that international observers have access to the vote, and secondly they will demand that the international community not recognise Maduro’s victory,” Farje told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, the opposition will be watching how Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab responds.

“He could possibly announce a series of arrest warrants if he considers that the opposition has committed certain types of electoral crimes. This has happened in the past and it can happen again,” Venezuelan political scientist Carlos Eduardo Pina told Al Jazeera. “We may see a scenario of repression.”

The military’s response will be central to shaping?what finally happens, said Pina.

“They are like a sort of great elector in Venezuela,” he said. And so far, Pina said, the signs suggest that the military “will recognise” Maduro’s win.

However, Maduro will face increasing international pressure.

“This victory could have a very high cost for Maduro at an international level,” Pina said. “The government is probably working on that right now, to try to reconcile the results they announced with what they intend to present.”

What’s next for Venezuela if Maduro stays in power?

Over the past 10 years, about 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country due to shortages of essential goods and skyrocketing inflation, and more are expected to leave if Maduro stays in office, according to experts.

“There will probably be a new wave of Venezuelan migration that,” Pina said.

Laura Dib, the Venezuela programme director at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a research and rights advocacy group based in the United States, told Al Jazeera last week that people in the country were desperate for relief from crushing economic circumstances.

“The minimum wage in Venezuela can be around $130 per month, but what a family needs just to cover their basic needs is around $500,” she said.

What’s next for the opposition?

According to experts, that will depend on the final results and how they are perceived within Venezuela as well as on how united the opposition itself can stay.

“If the opposition can demonstrate that the trend is genuinely in their favour, it’s likely that the population will suspect electoral fraud,” Pina said.

“Currently, we are witnessing a deployment of security forces who are prepared to repress if necessary,” he added.

Machado in particular faces a stern test.

“Corina Machado faces a direct, if not existential, struggle against Maduro. If she agrees to coexist with the government, she risks losing legitimacy among her supporters,” Pina explained.

“However, there are [other] sections within the opposition that have expressed a willingness to negotiate with the government,” he said. If these factions within the opposition do decide to coexist with the government, that “could delegitimise Corina Machado’s position”, Pina said.

According to Pina, the opposition’s only way to make a strong case will be to generate both internal and international pressure.

What have been the international reactions?

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Washington?has “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people”.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric said the results were hard to believe.

“The international community and especially the Venezuelan people, including the millions of Venezuelans in exile, demand total transparency. … From Chile, we will not recognise any result that is not verifiable.”

Uruguayan President Luis LaCalle Pou expressed disbelief. “Not that way! It was an open secret. They were going to ‘win’, regardless of what the actual results are,” he said on X.

“The process up to election day and counting was clearly flawed. You cannot recognise a triumph if you can’t trust the forms and mechanisms used to achieve it,” he added.

Así no! Era un secreto a voces. Iban a “ganar” sin perjuicio de los resultados reales.
El proceso hasta el día de la elección y el del escrutinio claramente estuvo viciado. No se puede reconocer un triunfo si no se confía en la forma y los mecanismos utilizados para llegar a él.

— Luis Lacalle Pou (@LuisLacallePou) July 29, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the results.

“Russian-Venezuelan relations have the character of a strategic partnership,” Putin said.

“I am confident that your activities as the head of state will continue to contribute to their progressive development in all directions,” he said, referring to Maduro. “I would like to confirm our readiness to continue our constructive joint work on topical issues on the bilateral and international agenda. Remember that you are always a welcome guest on Russian soil.”

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel congratulated Maduro.

“Nicolas Maduro, my brother, your victory, which is that of the Bolivarian and Chavista people, has cleanly and unequivocally defeated the pro-imperialist opposition,” he said. “The people spoke and the Revolution won.”

For more reactions, read our piece here.