Analysis: Can the Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire hold?

Beirut, Lebanon – A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah continued to hold on Friday despite claims from both sides that the other has violated it.

The 60-day United States and French-brokered ceasefire agreement took effect at 4am on Wednesday after nearly 14 months of cross-border attacks and just over two months after an Israeli escalation that wrought widespread devastation on south Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley and Beirut’s southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh.

Under the ceasefire, southern Lebanon is to be cleared of Hezbollah, who will retreat north of the Litani River and Israel, which is to withdraw from Lebanon to the south of the Blue Line.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are to deploy to monitor the south alongside the UN peacekeepers, UNIFIL.

Violation(s)

Clause 2 of the ceasefire agreement says Israel will not carry out offensive operations inside Lebanese territory and the Lebanese government will prevent Hezbollah or other armed groups from attacking Israel.

However, several incidents of Israel attacking within Lebanon have surfaced.

“Technically it looks like the Israelis have already breached clause 2 by opening fire inside Lebanon,” Nicholas Blanford, senior fellow with the Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera.

Israel has also been trying to restrict people’s movement in southern Lebanon, releasing a map with a zone marked in red, demanding that people from there not go home, “which is not part of the ceasefire agreement”, Blanford said.

Al Jazeera previously reported that Israel could be attempting to create a buffer zone in south Lebanon through the use of white phosphorus and other tactics.

On Thursday, Israeli forces opened fire on people in a car, calling them “suspects”, in southern Lebanon.

Israel claims these “suspects” violated the ceasefire – Hezbollah said Israel had attacked people who were trying to go home.

Israel said Thursday it was imposing a curfew on the south and also attacked what it claimed was a “Hezbollah facility” containing?medium-range rockets in the Sidon region, north of the Litani.

Israel also wounded three people in Markaba and two journalists in Khiam – one by gunfire and one from shelling – on Wednesday.

The Lebanese army said on Thursday evening that it was investigating “several” Israeli violations and would compile a report.

A fragile truce

While the reported violations by Israel have drawn condemnation from Hezbollah figures, the group has held off on any military response.

Indeed, on Friday, the group reiterated its commitment to the ceasefire deal.

In his first televised address since the truce went into effect, Secretary-General Naim Qassem said he would work with the Lebanese army to enforce the ceasefire, adding that he did not envision “problems or disagreement” with the army.

“The coordination between the resistance and the Lebanese army will be at a high level,” Qassem said.

Nearly 14 months of war, as Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanged near-daily fire since the war on Gaza began in October 2023, have taken an especially heavy toll on people from the border villages.

On the Lebanese side, at least 3,961 people have been killed by Israeli fire. About 140 soldiers and civilians have been killed by Hezbollah fire in Israel.

Israel’s attacks, which ramped up when it invaded Lebanon in September, have caused large-scale destruction to homes and infrastructure across the country, the World Bank estimating $2.8bn in damage to residential homes alone.

An estimated 99,000 homes have been partially or completely destroyed.

As thousands of people began returning to their homes on Wednesday, many Lebanese feared the attacks had not come to a full stop.

In Beirut’s Khandaq al-Ghamik neighbourhood, an Israeli attack destroyed several floors of a residential building on the last day before the ceasefire.

On Wednesday, Sleiman Omairat stood outside the neighbouring building where he lives and has an office. His office had been destroyed by the debris from the blast, as had his car, parked out front.

“There’s still no sense of security,” he said. “The Zionists don’t let you have any.”

For now, however, Omairat said the ceasefire had “restored dignity in the country” thanks to “the boys in the south”, referring to Hezbollah.

Could Hezbollah respond? ‘Now is not the time’

As the ceasefire took hold, Hezbollah took the opportunity to claim victory.

On Thursday, it said it had achieved “victory over the delusional enemy who could not undermine its resolve or break its will”.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant spoke often of wanting to destroy Hezbollah’s military capacity, implying Israel would not stop until that had been achieved.

Yet, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel until the final hours before the ceasefire.

But it seems both sides have had to cede ground. Despite Hebollah’s survival and continued ability to fire rockets and missiles, analysts said “victory” came with compromise for it as well.

Before his assassination, Hezbollah’s late leader Hassan Nasrallah set one condition for ending the war: ending Israel’s war on Gaza. That has not happened and, ultimately, the link between the Gaza and Lebanon fronts broke with this ceasefire.

“The party stood firm … it offered the most important thing it had for the sake of Palestine and Gaza,” political commentator Kassem Kassir, who is understood to be close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.

“It’s difficult to deny that this war has been bad for Hezbollah,” Elia Ayoub, a United Kingdom-based writer, researcher and author of the Hauntologies political newsletter, explaining that?Hezbollah experienced myriad losses.

But, Ayoub said, Israel’s behaviour towards Lebanon will have provided further grounds for those who believe in armed resistance.

“The fact that the Israelis are no longer able to occupy south Lebanon as they once did reinforces Hezbollah’s narrative that the only way for Lebanon to not follow the path of Gaza or the West Bank is militarisation,” Ayoub said.

In the meantime, however, analysts say Hezbollah has other priorities with its community reeling, caught up with rebuilding homes and lives.

Now is not the time for retaliation against ceasefire violations, they say – it would be too damaging for people in Lebanon.

“Hezbollah on the ground was in a precarious position and, of course, the community at large was too, with 1.2 million displaced and no end in sight,” Michael Young, a Lebanon expert for Carnegie Middle East Center, told Al Jazeera.

Hezbollah would not open a front against Israel again with people returning to their homes in the south, he said, adding: “It would be insane.

“Hezbollah right now is going to be more … concentrated on looking at the welfare needs of the Shia community that’s been battered,” Blanford said. “That’s going to be their priority even beyond rebuilding their military capacity.”

The post-war reality leaves major questions about Hezbollah’s future.

“They’re going to have to undergo a major reorganisation,” Blanford said. “Their top leadership has been decapitated and, while they’ve got plenty of other folks who can take over, they need to reorganise and clean shop.

“Clearly the Israelis penetrated this organisation thoroughly and that enabled them to kill top commanders whenever they wanted,” he said. “They need to figure out what went wrong and how to amend it.”